Tides vs. Waves

(2025.5)

I’ve been meaning to write about this for a while. If we’ve talked in private, you’ve probably heard me bring it up: the difference between feedback circles and hype circles.

Many venture-path founders and investors struggle to tell the difference between chasing short-term, trend-driven wins and uncovering (or creating) iconic, lasting companies. Too often, the motivation is just performative—impress each other, secure capital, boost perceived status. Hype is easy. Attention is cheap. It’s dangerously seductive to align with whatever VCs are tweeting about this week.

But here’s the uncomfortable truth: nobody builds a generational company by chasing hype. I don’t think it’s ever been done.

That doesn’t mean I’m dismissive of the hype-driven, bootstrapped AI app wave. Far from it. We’re in a golden era for small, fast, AI-native businesses. If you know how to wield the tools, move fast, and execute with precision, you can make real money—fast. I’ve seen solo builders or teams of fewer than five people generate $500K to $3M within 60 days. That’s incredible. I admire their taste and speed.

But when something works, it quickly becomes a playbook. And playbooks invite saturation. The second-tier explainer threads show up. Then the YouTubers. Then the clones. Soon you’re in a race to the bottom. And with more FAANG talent now entering this space post-layoffs, competition is only going to intensify. Unless, you have strong network effect.

Ironically, many venture-path founders and VCs who claim they want to build iconic companies spend their time chasing these short-term trends. Because it feels safer. You don’t need to take a real bet. You just follow the momentum. You don’t need to be early. You don’t need to be right—just visible.

But when you look at how iconic companies are actually built, the story is different. The real outliers—the $500M to $5B+ outcomes—come from founders who sense long-term tides, not fleeting waves. They pursue ideas that aren’t immediately obvious. They’re guided by non-obvious insight, not social consensus. They often spend years getting early feedback in quiet, unfashionable corners of the internet before the world catches up.

Hype gives you attention now. Feedback gives you truth over time. Outlier outcomes come from hidden feedback circles—not overblown hype cycles.